Gwamnatin kasar Rasha ta kudiri aniyar gabatar da harajin fitar da taki a karon farko da kuma tsawaita kason da ake samu a kasashen ketare. Ta yaya hakan zai shafi fitar da takin zamani zuwa ketare, wanda tuni ya ragu saboda takunkumin da kasashen yamma suka kakaba mata, wanda mujallar Forbes ta yi bincike.
A cewar Hukumar Abinci da Aikin Noma ta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya (FAO), Rasha a bara ta kasance ta farko a duniya wajen fitar da takin nitrogen, ita ce ta biyu mafi girma wajen fitar da takin potash da na uku - phosphorus. Sai dai kuma saboda takunkumin da kasashen yamma suka kakabawa taki daga kasar Rasha daga watan Janairu zuwa Agusta na wannan shekara, bisa ga sabbin bayanai da aka samu, gaba daya ya ragu idan aka kwatanta da na shekarar da ta gabata, in ji manazarta a cibiyar bincike kan manufofin abinci ta kasa da kasa (IFPRI) Joseph. Glauber da David Laborde bayanin kula.
Moscow ta rufe bayanan fitar da kayayyaki daga watan Maris, amma a cewar manazarta IFPRI, bisa budaddiyar bayanai daga kasashen da ake shigo da takin Rasha, samar da sinadarin potassium chloride a farkon watanni takwas na wannan shekara ya ragu da kashi 16.5%, urea (urea, taki mai dauke da 46). % nitrogen) - da 22.8%. Shigo da ammonia daga Rasha ya ragu musamman - da kashi 63%, dalilin shine rufe bututun Togliatti-Odessa ammonia. A lokaci guda, wadatar dimmoniya phosphate ya zarce adadin na farkon watanni takwas na 2021 da fiye da 8%.
Duk da raguwar fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje, gwamnati na shirin gabatar da harajin fitar da takin zamani daga ranar 1 ga watan Janairu. Mai yiwuwa, Rasha za ta gabatar da su ba tare da wata shida ba, tunda tsawon lokaci ya zama dole don daidaitawa tare da sauran membobin Eurasian. Ƙungiyar Tattalin Arziƙi (EAEU).
A watan Oktoba, Ministan Kudi Anton Siluanov ya sanar da cewa za a yi amfani da harajin fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje idan farashin takin phosphorus da nitrogen a duniya ya wuce dala 500 kan kowace ton, da takin potash - $400 kan kowace ton. Kuma a watan Nuwamba, ministan masana'antu da cinikayya Denis Manturov ya ce harajin fitar da duk wani nau'in takin zamani zai kai kashi 23.5% idan farashin duniya ya wuce dala 450 kan kowace ton, kuma an riga an shirya daftarin kudurin.
Duk masana'antun za su biya haraji
A cewar Phosagro, matsakaicin farashin takin ma'adinai a cikin kwata na uku na 2022 ya kasance mafi girma fiye da farashin a daidai wannan lokacin na 2021. Matsakaicin farashin urea a tashar jiragen ruwa na Tekun Baltic ya kasance $ 538 kowace ton idan aka kwatanta da $ 442 a bara. don ammophos (ammonium phosphate, nitrogen-phosphorus taki, ya ƙunshi 10-12% nitrogen da 44-52% phosphorus) - $ 777 a kowace ton akan $ 695, don potassium chloride (potassium taki tare da 58-60% potassium oxide) - $694 akan $277.
"Farashin phosphorus-mai ɗauke da takin potash a hankali ya ragu saboda sun yi tsada idan aka kwatanta da farashin kayayyakin amfanin gona," in ji rahoton kamfanin. "Farashin takin nitrogen, ciki har da urea, ya biyo bayan wani yanayi ne da ya fi kamari, wanda ya hada da ci gaba da hauhawar farashin makamashi, da kuma sakamakon raguwar samar da irin wadannan takin, musamman a Turai."
A farashi na yanzu, mai yiyuwa ne za a dora harajin akan kowane irin takin zamani, in ji Dmitry Puchkarev, masani kan kasuwar hannayen jari ta BCS World of Investments.
“Yanzu farashin dillalan potassium chloride a Turai da Amurka kusan $850-855 kan kowace ton, na urea - $ 820-825, dimmonium phosphate (nitrogen-phosphorus taki tare da 18% nitrogen da 46% phosphorus) - $ 820-830 kowace ton. Idan aka kwatanta da farashin bazara-lokacin 2022, lokacin da suka kai yawan shekaru masu yawa, farashin yana raguwa, "in ji kwararre mai zaman kansa Leonid Khazanov. "Duk da haka, har yanzu farashin bai kai matakin na Nuwamba 2021 ba, kodayake farashin urea yana gabatowa ma'auni na wannan lokacin." Farashin fitar da kayayyaki a tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Rasha a fili ya yi kasa fiye da farashin tallace-tallace a kasashen Yamma, tun da ba su hada da farashin sufuri da kuma gibin 'yan kasuwa da ke tsakanin masu kera da masu amfani da su ba.
Alexey Kalachev, wani manazarci a Finam ya ce: “Rage-farashin dala 450 kan kowace ton ba za a iya kiransa da yawa ba. "Mai yiwuwa, sakamakon yarjejeniya ne da sasantawa." A cewar Kalachev, duk da cewa farashin taki ya fadi da kashi 20-30% daga kololuwar kimar bazara, har yanzu suna ci gaba da girma - sun kasance mafi girma ne kawai a cikin bazarar 2021, kuma kafin hakan galibi farashin ya ragu sosai.
A cikin shekarun da suka gabata, farashin taki ya tashi sama da dala 450 akan kowace ton kawai a cikin 2007-2008 da 2010-2012, in ji Kalachev. Don haka, ya ce, harajin da ya haura farashin da aka yanke, bisa tsarin gwamnati, zai janye “iska” na masu samar da takin zamani a cikin kasafin kudin. Farashin da aka yanke zai kare masu samarwa daga nauyin kasafin kuɗi mai yawa idan yanayin kasuwa ya canza kuma farashin ya faɗi zuwa matsakaicin matakan shekarun baya.
Asarar masu kera bayan gabatar da harajin fitar da kayayyaki ba zai dogara ne kan farashin kawai ba, har ma da rabon kayayyakin da suke fitarwa a cikin kudaden shiga, in ji Kalachev. Yanzu kamfanoni ba su bayyana yanayin tallace-tallace ba. A cikin shekarun da suka gabata, fitar da Fosagro zuwa ketare ya kawo kusan kashi 70% na kudaden shiga. Idan an ba da harajin 23.5% akan farashin sama da $ 450 a kowace ton, to yayin da ake kiyaye farashin yanzu, aikin zai kashe kamfanin game da 6% na kudaden shiga, in ji masanin.
Ma'aikatar masana'antu da ciniki ba ta rubuta farashin wanda tushen za a ɗauka a matsayin ma'auni ba, saboda farashin kan tushe daban-daban ya bambanta sosai, in ji Oksana Lukicheva, wani manazarci kan kasuwannin kayayyaki a Otkritie Investments. Duk masu kera za su biya haraji, amma da farko wadanda fitar da su sun kasance masu girma - Phosagro, Akron, Eurochem. Uralchem, babban mai samar da takin potash, zai biya kadan saboda abin da yake fitarwa ya ragu.
Ayyuka, a cewar Lukicheva, na iya rage yawan kudin shiga na masu fitar da kayayyaki, amma ba zai shafi fitarwa ba. "Kudirin haraji na 23.5% yana da karbuwa sosai a farashin takin zamani," in ji manazarcin. "Kasuwanci na iya kasancewa a matakin bara ko ma girma idan aka sassauta takunkumi."
Gabatar da aikin na iya haifar da raguwar fitarwa daga Rasha idan farashin takin ma'adinai a kasuwannin duniya ya ci gaba da raguwa, in ji Khazanov. Tare da irin wannan ci gaban abubuwan da suka faru, mai sharhi ya yi jayayya, ribar masana'antun za su ragu, wanda za a tilasta su rage kayayyaki da kuma sake duba shirye-shiryen zuba jari. “Duk da haka, bayan wani lokaci, hakan zai haifar da hauhawar farashin takin ma’adinai a kasashen waje, saboda karancinsu a kasuwannin duniya, kamar yadda ya kasance a lokacin bazara-rani na 2022, kuma kamfanonin sinadarai na cikin gida, sun yi asara mai yawa, za su yi hasarar da yawa. iya samun kuɗi, "in ji Khazanov.
Ƙidaya ba zai iyakance fitarwa ba
Ayyuka ba shine kawai hanyar da za a tsara yadda ake samar da takin Rasha a waje ba. Gwamnati ta yanke shawarar tsawaita kaso na fitar da taki daga ranar 1 ga watan Janairu zuwa ranar 31 ga Mayu, 2023. An buga daftarin kudurin da ya dace a shafin yanar gizon daftarin dokoki na yau da kullun. A cikinta, an kayyade adadin kason da ake fitarwa zuwa kasashen waje a wajen EAEU zuwa tan miliyan 7,013 na takin nitrogen da tan miliyan 4,907 na hadadden takin zamani.
Wannan bai kai yadda yake ba. Daga Yuli 1 zuwa Disamba 31, 2022, ƙididdiga na takin mai magani na nitrogen yana aiki - ton miliyan 8.3, ga masu hadaddun da ke dauke da abubuwa biyu ko uku (nitrogen, phosphorus da potassium) - 5.9 miliyan ton. Ma'aikatar masana'antu da kasuwanci ta sanar a ranar 21 ga Nuwamba cewa ta riga ta yanke shawarar kara sabon kason don fitar da wasu nau'ikan takin nitrogen: za a kara yawan farashin urea zuwa ton 400,000, ammonium nitrate - ta ton 200,000. urea-ammonia cakuda da 150,000 ton. Yarjejeniyar da ta dace ta kasance mataimakin Firayim Minista na farko Andrei Belousov. To sai dai kuma bayan da aka kara wannan kaso da tan miliyan 0.75 zuwa tan miliyan 7.763, ya zama kasa da adadin da ake samu a yanzu na fitar da takin nitrogen da ya kai tan miliyan 8.3.
Ana ƙididdige girman ƙididdiga bisa ga yawan samarwa, kayayyaki ga manoman Rasha da masana'antun masana'antu, bisa ga bayanin da Forbes ta samu daga Ma'aikatar Masana'antu da Kasuwanci. A cewar wasiƙar, sabunta sigar daftarin aiki da Ma'aikatar Aikin Noma ta Rasha ta amince da ita kuma Ma'aikatar Masana'antu da Kasuwanci ta Rasha ta amince da samar da isar ga manoman Rasha a cikin Janairu-Mayu 2023 da 10% sama da matakin guda. a shekarar da ta gabata, wanda ya yi tasiri wajen rage yawan adadin kason da ake fitarwa zuwa kasashen waje.
Ƙaramin ƙaramar ƙididdiga, idan aka kwatanta da lokutan ƙididdiga na baya, ya kasance da farko saboda lokacin, bayanin ya ce. A baya, an gabatar da kaso na watanni shida - daga 1 ga Disamba, 2021 zuwa 31 ga Mayu, 2022 da kuma daga Yuli 1, 2022 zuwa Disamba 31, 2022. Lokacin da ƙudurin aikin ya gabatar ya shafi watanni biyar ne kawai - daga 1 ga Janairu zuwa 31 ga Mayu. 2023. "Za a ƙayyade adadin ƙarshe na ƙididdiga yayin daidaitawa da daftarin ƙuduri tare da hukumomin zartarwa na tarayya masu sha'awar kuma an amince da su a wani taron kwamitin koli kan jadawalin kwastam da ka'idojin kuɗin fito, matakan kariya a cikin kasuwancin waje na Hukumar Gwamnati. don Ci gaban Tattalin Arziki da Haɗin kai,” in ji ma’aikatar masana’antu da kasuwanci.
"Gabaɗaya, an gabatar da ƙididdiga na fitarwa a cikin adadin kaɗan kaɗan fiye da matsakaicin adadin fitarwa na lokutan baya," in ji Alexey Kalachev, wani manazarci a Finam. "Suna kare kasuwannin cikin gida daga haɓakar adadin fitar da kayayyaki, amma kusan ba sa rage ainihin fitar da kamfanoni ke fitarwa."
Ƙaddamar da ƙayyadaddun ƙididdiga kawai zai daidaita rabon da ke tsakanin sayar da takin ma'adinai a kasuwannin cikin gida na Rasha da kuma kasashen waje, idan ya cancanta, za a iya fadada su, kamar yadda ya riga ya kasance a wannan shekara, in ji Khazanov. "A kowane hali, kasuwar Rasha za ta kasance mabuɗin ga masu samar da mu, wanda a cikin 2023 na iya ƙara ƙarfinsa saboda ci gaba da goyon bayan jihar ga aikin noma," in ji masanin.
A cewar kungiyar masu samar da taki na kasar Rasha, ya zuwa ranar 16 ga watan Nuwamban shekarar 2022, masu samar da takin ma’adinai na kasar Rasha sun samar da kashi 108% na bukatar da masu noman Rasha ke bukata, wanda a bana aka kiyasta ya kai tan miliyan 4.85.
Tushe: https://www.forbes.ru