Me ke shirin kawowa fannin taki a shekara mai zuwa? Muna raba wani ɓangare na babban dabarun masu sharhi na BCS don kasuwar Rasha - bari mu ga yadda abubuwa za su kasance a cikin masana'antar gaba ɗaya, kuma waɗanne amintattun za su kasance mafifici.
Har yanzu takunkumin bai shafe takin Phosphate ba
Halayen asali na kasuwar taki phosphate sun kasance karko. Farashin taki ya ragu daga mafi girma a cikin Q1-2 2022, amma ya kasance sama da matsakaicin shekaru masu yawa. Dangane da girma, fitar da takin phosphate zuwa kasashen waje (da samar da su) bai yi tasiri ba.
Aikin fitarwa (wanda zai yiwu daga 2023) an saita shi akan ƙimar ma'auni na 23.5%, kuma za a caje shi akan farashin sama da $450 akan kowace ton. Matsayin farashin yanzu yana sama da wannan kofa, amma da wuya aikin ya yi yawa . Babban abin da za a yi la'akari da shi shine raguwar farashi a hankali - a cikin ra'ayinmu, kasuwar taki tana rage ƙimar haɗarin geopolitical.
Wani muhimmin al'amari shi ne adana kundin fitar da kayayyaki, yayin da ba mu ware wasu abubuwa marasa kyau ba (takunkumi, toshewa ko wasu cin zarafi na isar da kayayyaki zuwa fitarwa).
PhosAgro
Mun sake nanata shawarar mu na HOLD don hannun jari na PhosAgro kuma mun rage farashin mu zuwa RUB 6,600 daga RUB 6,900. Hasashen farashin musanya da aka sabunta dan rage kimar mu.
Duban kamfani
An ƙayyade yanayin kasuwancin PhosAgro akan farashi. Tunda farashin yana raguwa daga bayanan rabin farkon 2022 (bisa ga kamfanin, bisa ga MAP, ana siyar da su akan $ 777 kowace ton FOB Baltic Sea a cikin kwata na uku na 2022 kuma akan $ 1,009 kowace ton a farkon rabin 2022 ).
Muna kiyaye ra'ayi na tsaka tsaki game da kamfani, amma lura da kyakkyawan tsarin gudanarwa na kamfani. Bugu da kari, kamfanin yana raba riba mai yawa tare da masu hannun jari. A lokaci guda, babu wanda ya soke mahimman abubuwan, don haka idan (da kuma lokacin) farashin ya faɗi, za a sami ƙarancin riba da za a rarraba.
ci gaban direbobi
• Babu raguwar farashi a cikin 2023. Yanzu mun yi hasashen farashin MAP/DAP zai faɗi 21% yo a 2023 da 25% yo a 2024. Idan farashin ya kasance a matakan yanzu, zamu iya tsammanin haɓakar riba, rabo kuma saboda haka kimantawa.
Ruble mai rauni zai iya tallafawa ribar ruble (ga masu fitarwa). Dangane da ƙididdigar mu, farashin musayar ruble a cikin 2023 ba zai canza zahiri ba idan aka kwatanta da 2022 (68.4 rubles da dala da 68.5 rubles da dala).
Idan aka yi la'akari da girman adadin fitar da kaya a cikin jimlar kudaden shiga, ƙimar PhosAgro yana da matuƙar kula da ƙimar musanya. Rauni na ruble zai sami tasiri mai kyau akan ƙimar ruble ɗin mu.
Mabuɗin haɗari
• Rushewar kayayyakin da ake fitarwa zuwa kasashen waje na iya kawo cikas ga kasuwanni. Haɗarin takunkumi a wannan mataki shine kawai hasashe, amma idan aka ba da hani daban-daban akan takin Rasha (ƙididdiga, da dai sauransu), wannan ba za a iya kawar da shi gaba ɗaya ba. A matsayin mai fitar da kaya, PhosAgro yana kula da canjin canjin USD/RUB.
Farashin manyan samfuran PhosAgro, kodayake sun ragu, har yanzu suna da yawa. Hadarin da ke tattare da kimar mu yana da alaƙa da hauhawar farashin taki, raunin ruble da kuma tsayin daka na tsawon lokaci.
Manyan canje-canje
Sauye-sauyen kuɗi, kuɗin gudanarwa. Mun sake fasalin ci gaban SG&A a cikin 1H22 (+131% YoY) da daidaitawa a cikin 3Q2022 (+2% YoY kawai).
Yanzu mun yi imanin cewa wannan tsalle-tsalle ya kasance ne kawai saboda biyan kuɗi ga mambobin kwamitin gudanarwar da suka yi ritaya. A wani ɓangare, wannan tasirin yana haɓaka haɓakar farashin musayar ruble. Hasashen 2022 zai ɗan yi muni fiye da yadda muka yi hasashe a baya, kuma jagorar EBITDA na 2023 shima ya ɗan ragu kaɗan. A cikin 2024, raguwar kuɗaɗen gudanarwa zai daidaita tasirin ƙimar kuɗin kuma EBITDA/sabar za ta inganta.
Kimantawa da shawarwari
Kadan rage farashin manufa, tabbatar da "Rike". Don ƙididdige PhosAgro, muna amfani da samfurin DCF tare da WACC na 16.4%, CoE na 16.7% da ƙimar girma bayan annabta na 3%.
Samfurin mu yana nuna farashin manufa don watanni 12 na 6,600 rubles. - "Rike" (la'akari da hasashen mu na farashin da kundin). A bayyane yake, ƙimar mu tana da mahimmanci ga farashin fitarwa (kimanin 70% na tallace-tallace), ƙarfin samarwa, kundin, farashin musaya, da sauransu. Lura cewa ƙima da farashi sune mafi mahimmancin mahimmancin fitar da kamfani.